The bar keeps moving up
The S&P 500’s forward 4-quarter EPS estimate climbed again this week to $353.22, up from $352.62 last week and well above the quarter’s starting point of $338.29. In other words: analysts keep nudging their expectations higher, and the market is quietly acting like earnings growth is an all-you-can-eat buffet.
Q1 went from solid to suspiciously strong
Q1 ’26 is the eyebrow-raiser here. Back on April 3rd, the index’s expected EPS growth rate for the quarter was +14.4%. By the June 26th update, that had doubled to +29.4%. That’s a pretty dramatic glow-up, and it raises the usual investor question: are companies really getting that much stronger, or are expectations just getting a little too comfortable?
Why you should care
Q2 ’26 is starting the quarter with expected EPS growth of +24%, which is actually higher than Q1 ’26’s starting point. That’s bullish on paper, but it also means the market is heading into earnings season with a very high bar already set.
- If companies beat it, stocks can keep partying.
- If they miss, the market may react like someone pulled the plug on the DJ.
Big picture: when expectations rise this fast, even good earnings can start feeling merely “fine,” and fine is not exactly the fuel that keeps valuations floating forever.