RNW
TSLA
A very Tesla week
Tesla is doing that thing Tesla does: making investors read three headlines and feel five emotions. On one hand, NHTSA opened a new probe into a fatal crash tied to Tesla’s driver-assistance tech. On the other, the agency closed its Model 3 and Model Y steering probe over the weekend, which at least removes one headache from the pile.
The real event hiding in plain sight
The most important near-term catalyst here is still the Q2 delivery report, which is expected in the first week of July. That’s the number everyone will be laser-beaming at, because it’s basically the first real checkup on whether Tesla’s demand recovery is the start of something real or just a temporary sugar high.
Analysts are looking for roughly 406,000 deliveries, while Goldman Sachs pushed its estimate to 420,000. If Tesla clears expectations, you’ll probably hear a lot of talk about Europe, where registrations have been running hot. If it misses, expect the usual chorus about demand, pricing, and whether the EV throne is getting a little wobbly.
Meanwhile, Tesla’s battery business is quietly becoming a bigger deal
On June 24, Tesla joined Sunrun and Renew Home on a framework for more than 16 gigawatts of flexible energy capacity for hyperscalers and utilities. Translation: Tesla’s energy ecosystem is increasingly part of the AI data-center power conversation, which is a fancy way of saying the company is helping turn home batteries and smart devices into a giant virtual power plant.
That matters because it gives Tesla another story beyond cars. And in a world where investors are obsessed with power-hungry AI infrastructure, being plugged into the grid solution side of the boom is not a bad place to be.
Big picture
Tesla stock is still trading on a cocktail of regulation, deliveries, and optionality. Cars still drive the narrative, but energy is creeping in like the surprise guest who somehow ends up running the party.