RCL
Royal gets the softer landing
Royal Caribbean has a Mexico-sized headache on its hands, but BNP Paribas thinks it’s more of a speed bump than a crash barrier. Mexican authorities reportedly didn’t approve the company’s Perfect Day Mexico project in its current form, which could push the opening back by nine to 12 months and into late 2028.
That’s not exactly the kind of news you frame on your wall. But BNP says it’s still manageable, especially with Royal Caribbean’s longer-term growth story intact.
The good news is doing a lot of heavy lifting
The brokerage expects Royal to keep its midpoint guidance for 2% net yield growth in 2026. And if second-quarter results come in stronger than feared, that could calm investors who’ve been sweating the second half.
A few things are helping Royal’s case:
- Capacity growth is expected to slow to about 4% in 2027, down from 6.7% in 2026
- Royal Beach Club Cozumel is still slated to open in early 2028
- If Mexico keeps dragging, the company could look at backup destinations like Belize or Honduras
So yes, the project delay is a wrinkle. But it doesn’t look like the whole sweater is unraveling.
Norwegian’s mess looks harder to iron out
Norwegian Cruise Line, meanwhile, is dealing with a more stubborn problem set. BNP says the company is still wrestling with yield pressure, booking management questions, leadership churn, and itineraries that may not be maximizing pricing power.
The firm also pointed to a search for a chief marketing officer and said Norwegian’s recovery may not really come together until the second half of 2027. That’s a long time to wait when investors are already losing patience.
There is one bright spot: Norwegian’s Great Tides water park at Great Stirrup Cay is still expected to open in September. But BNP doesn’t think that one attraction is enough to offset the bigger operational fog.
Big picture: Royal Caribbean looks like it’s absorbing a project delay. Norwegian looks like it still needs to prove the whole turnaround story is real.