Risk-on is back on the menu
Monday’s session had the energy of a group chat after everyone suddenly decides the drama is over. The S&P 500 jumped 1.18% to 7,440.43, helped by cooling tensions between the U.S. and Iran and a rebound in semiconductor stocks.
The market’s favorite parlor game
Polymarket traders are now pricing a 61% chance that the S&P 500 opens higher on Tuesday. That’s not a guarantee, obviously — just a very expensive way of saying investors are feeling a little less grumpy than they were last week.
Chips, geopolitics, and a tiny bit of hope
A lot of the day’s mood shift came from two things:
- The U.S. and Iran agreeing to halt hostilities, which eased fears about shipping through the Strait of Hormuz
- Semiconductor shares snapping back, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF and global chip names like Samsung joining the rally
Alphabet also got a boost from its Dow debut, but that’s more window dressing than the main show here. The bigger question is whether this rally has legs or whether Tuesday opens like a party that ends at 9:15 a.m.
Big picture
Investors still have to deal with the usual nervous-boss energy from macro data, including JOLTS, Chicago PMI, and consumer confidence. So yes, the mood is better — but the market still has receipts to prove it can keep climbing.