MSTR
The haircut wasn’t about Strategy
TD Cowen took a pair of scissors to its price target on Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR), slashing it to $260 from $400. But the firm was pretty clear about why: it wasn’t spooked by Strategy’s latest capital framework, it was trimming its Bitcoin outlook.
Follow the BTC, not the breadcrumbs
The bank now sees Bitcoin hitting about $100,000 by the end of 2026 and $135,000 by the end of 2027, both well below prior calls. That matters because Strategy is basically a very loud proxy for Bitcoin with a corporate balance sheet attached. If you dial down the BTC runway, the MSTR valuation model shrinks right along with it.
TD Cowen said Strategy’s framework is still, quote-unquote, incrementally constructive. Translation: the company’s reserve rebuild, preferred-led financing, and selective Bitcoin sales still fit the script the analysts already had in mind. The surprise wasn’t Strategy changing the game; it was Bitcoin being less of a moonshot than before.
Capital stack gymnastics, now with more guardrails
Strategy also authorized up to $1 billion in preferred stock repurchases and another $1 billion in MSTR buybacks, which is basically the company saying it wants more flexibility in how it manages its own financial circus. TD Cowen liked the move enough to call it a step toward rebuilding investor confidence, especially with a larger USD reserve and dividend coverage that now stretches beyond a year.
Big picture: when your stock lives and dies by the price of Bitcoin, Wall Street’s BTC forecast can matter more than your own corporate announcement. That’s the kind of dependency that makes for thrilling headlines — and a very moody chart.