AVAV
Fresh from the earnings hangover
AeroVironment’s stock is having one of those “wait, that was the good news?” days, jumping hard after BTIG said the company still has plenty of runway. Analyst Andre Madrid reiterated a Buy rating and kept the $205 price target in place, basically telling investors: don’t get distracted by the messy parts.
The AxS engine is doing the heavy lifting
The star of the show is the Autonomous Systems segment, which BTIG says grew 80% year over year in the fourth quarter and 61% across fiscal 2026. That’s not just healthy — that’s the kind of growth that makes the rest of the spreadsheet sit quietly in the corner.
Here’s the kicker:
- AxS posted a strong 28% adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter
- BlueHalo and SCDE are still a drag, thanks to the SCAR program termination and government funding delays
- Management still sees demand, but the timing looks slippery, with delays potentially stretching into late 2026 or early 2027
Why investors are still paying attention
Management’s fiscal 2027 outlook calls for $2.125 billion to $2.225 billion in sales, plus $305 million to $325 million in adjusted EBITDA and $3.02 to $3.34 in adjusted EPS. That’s solid enough to keep the bulls from running for the exits, even if margins are expected to stay roughly flat as AeroVironment keeps investing for growth.
Big picture: AeroVironment is still being treated like a growth story with defense upside, not a one-trick drone pony. If AxS keeps humming, the market seems willing to forgive the BlueHalo funk — at least for now.