GLNG
From “someday” to “show me the cash”
Golar LNG’s bull case is starting to look less like a dream sequence and more like a business plan with receipts. The latest note reiterates a buy rating as the company’s floating LNG engine keeps warming up: Gimi is operational, while Hilli and MKII are still inching forward.
The backlog is doing the heavy lifting
Here’s the part that has investors leaning in: GLNG says its contracted EBITDA backlog is around $17 billion. That’s a pretty chunky cushion for a company whose story used to feel a little more “what if?” than “here’s the money.” The current asset base is also targeting more than $800 million in annual run-rate adjusted EBITDA, before any commodity upside gets tossed into the blender.
Argentina is helpful, but not a free pass
The new eight-year SEFE offtake deal in Argentina helps de-risk a slice of the roadmap. Nice. But the market still wants to know what happens with the remaining 4 mtpa of volumes and whether management can keep execution tight. Because with infrastructure-heavy stories, the hard part is rarely the idea — it’s the plumbing.
Why you should care
If Golar keeps converting contracted work into actual operations, the stock could keep earning the “this time is different” treatment. If not, the backlog starts to look a lot less magical and a lot more like a long to-do list.
Big picture: Golar’s FLNG narrative is getting more credible by the quarter — and Wall Street seems willing to pay for that credibility, at least for now.