SNDK
New ceiling, same memory squeeze
Bank of America just cranked up the volume on the SanDisk bull case. Analyst Wamsi Mohan kept a Buy rating on SanDisk (SNDK) and boosted his price target from $2,100 to $2,500, arguing the NAND supply-demand mismatch still has legs.
That’s not just “we like the stock.” That’s “we think this thing can stay spicy for a while.”
Why the bulls are still camping out
Mohan’s core thesis is pretty simple: the NAND market is still tight, and it may stay that way through 2027. He expects pricing to hold up at least through mid-2027, with:
- roughly 13% sequential bit growth in the June quarter
- a 35% sequential jump in average selling prices
- revenue and earnings estimates above both the Street and company guidance
In other words, he thinks SanDisk is still surfing a wave that hasn’t crashed yet.
The numbers behind the shiny new target
BofA’s math is a classic Wall Street move: keep the valuation multiple at 10x calendar-2027 earnings, but lift the earnings base to $252 from $199. Voilà — the price target jumps to $2,500.
He also thinks SanDisk’s contract-heavy model — especially its New Business Model, or NBM — is helping lock in visibility well beyond the next quarter. That matters because investors hate mystery almost as much as they hate margin compression.
What could spoil the fun
The biggest risk, according to Mohan, is China. If YMTC ramps output and starts dumping more supply into the global market, NAND pricing could cool off faster than the bulls want.
Other watch-outs:
- slower adoption of AI-enabled consumer devices
- oversupply-driven price drops
- share losses in enterprise SSDs, where SanDisk is currently third
Big picture: BofA is basically saying SanDisk isn’t just a trade on the next earnings print — it’s a bet that the memory shortage can keep turning a cyclical stock into a much longer-running story.