SPCX
Not the usual bear case
George Noble is basically saying: forget the usual “too expensive” gripe for a second. The bigger issue with SpaceX might be that a tiny, tightly held float is about to stop being tiny and tight.
He argues the stock’s early pop was partly a supply squeeze masquerading as a victory lap. When only a sliver of shares are tradable and big index buyers are forced to show up, the price can get weird in a hurry. Think: less “fundamental discovery,” more “everyone wants the last slice of pizza.”
The unlock calendar is the real drama
Per Noble, the company’s prospectus lays out a pretty specific roadmap for more shares hitting the market:
- a first meaningful unlock after second-quarter earnings
- another possible release if the stock clears a price trigger
- more tranches from late August through October
- a larger unlock after third-quarter earnings
- the six-month lockup fully expiring in December
Noble says insiders could be free to sell as much as 44% of the company by early September, which would increase the tradable float by roughly 900% from IPO levels. That’s not a tweak. That’s a supply shock with a cape on.
Why you should care
This isn’t a normal “missed earnings, stock down 8%” story. It’s a structure story. If early employees and private investors decide to cash out, the market has to absorb a lot more stock, and valuation gets a whole lot less forgiving.
Of course, lockup expirations don’t automatically mean a selloff. Some holders sit tight, and strong demand can mop up supply. But if you own the name, this is the part of the calendar you can’t ignore.
Big picture: SpaceX may still have the rocket-ship narrative, but Noble is warning that the next phase is less about liftoff and more about how much stock suddenly comes back down to Earth.