The market got the memo — sort of
The S&P 500 has been acting like it just found out the snacks are free: up for a second straight session thanks to cooler inflation and another round of decent earnings. June producer prices unexpectedly fell 0.3%, which followed Tuesday’s softer CPI print and gave investors fresh ammo for the “maybe the Fed is done hiking” argument.
But the mood is still a little fragile
Even with the sugar rush from better inflation data, Polymarket traders were only putting a 37% chance on the S&P 500 opening higher on Thursday. Translation: folks like the setup, but they’re not exactly ripping off their seatbelts and yelling “to the moon.” S&P 500 futures were already down 0.1% early Thursday, because apparently markets enjoy keeping everyone emotionally available.
What investors should watch next
The next few data points matter because they can either confirm the soft-landing storyline or ruin the vibe:
- June retail sales, which will tell you whether consumers are still spending like it’s 2019
- Weekly jobless claims, the economy’s weekly mood ring
- UnitedHealth’s earnings before the bell
- Netflix’s results after the close
Big picture: inflation is cooling, yields are easing, and the rally has room to run — but the market is still one hot data point away from getting jittery again.