TSM
The market got a little ahead of itself
TSMC is still the 800-pound gorilla in foundry, and this note says the bears may be front-running the competition. The argument: wafer shipments are still climbing, revenues are accelerating, and gross margins are getting richer — not exactly the vibe of a company losing its edge.
The AI spending hangover? Not so fast
Yes, the market has been grumbling about AI capex fatigue. But the bull case here is that TSMC’s aggressive capacity buildout is backed by a chunky cash pile and a healthy balance sheet, which makes the spending spree look less like a panic move and more like a flex.
And then there’s the 2nm ramp. That’s the kind of manufacturing upgrade that keeps customers coming back, especially when everyone in AI wants the shiniest chips yesterday.
Competitors: threatening, but not quite there
Intel and Samsung get name-checked as future foundry challengers, but the key word is future. The note argues it’s still unclear when either company can hit volume production at scale — let alone do it profitably.
So if you were worried that TSMC’s moat is evaporating overnight, this note is basically saying: pump the brakes. The foundry race is real, but TSMC still looks like it’s several laps ahead.
Big picture: when the market starts pricing in a slowdown before the slowdown actually shows up, that’s usually when the strongest operators get the most interesting.