IBM
The main event: earnings after the bell
IBM is about to do the quarterly ritual: walk up to the earnings mic and explain whether the story is still working. The company said it will release second-quarter results after the closing bell on Wednesday, July 22, and Wall Street is showing up with its calculators out.
Analysts are looking for earnings of $2.92 a share on $17.33 billion in revenue. That’s slightly better than a year ago on the bottom line and a touch higher on sales, but not exactly the kind of setup that gets investors doing cartwheels.
The bar got lower last week
Here’s the part that matters: IBM already told the market on July 14 that it expects second-quarter revenue of $17.2 billion, or about 1% growth year over year — but still below the Street’s $17.86 billion consensus at the time. Translation: IBM basically handed everyone a heads-up that the quarter might be fine, but not fabulous.
And the stock has felt that chill. Shares slipped 1.2% to $210.50 on Tuesday, which is what happens when the market starts treating a supposedly steady giant like a mystery box.
Analysts are still waving pom-poms, just more softly
The analyst crowd hasn’t exactly turned bearish, but the enthusiasm has been trimmed down a notch or two:
- Citi kept a Buy rating but hacked its target from $375 to $255.
- JPMorgan stayed at Overweight and cut its target from $291 to $250.
- Argus also kept a Buy, but lowered its target from $360 to $280.
- Evercore ISI held Outperform while taking its target from $310 to $250.
- HSBC went the other direction, downgrading IBM from Hold to Reduce and cutting its target to $191.
So yes, the ratings still look decent. But the price targets tell a different story: this is less "everything is awesome" and more "we still like the house, but the roof needs work."
Why you should care
For investors, IBM’s report is now about credibility. If the company can show that its software, consulting, and AI-related growth are holding up after the warning, the stock could stabilize. If not, the market may decide this was less of a speed bump and more of a detour.
Big picture: IBM doesn’t need a fireworks show, but it does need to prove the business is still moving forward at a pace that justifies the patience — and the premium-ish valuation — investors have been giving it.