TTE
The headline numbers weren’t perfect — but the market likes the vibe
TotalEnergies handed in a mixed Q2: adjusted EPS came in at $2.68 vs. the $2.71 expected, and revenue landed at $61.8 billion, shy of estimates. But the market didn’t seem too bothered, because adjusted net income more than doubled to $6.0 billion from $3.6 billion a year ago, and the company’s cash generation looked sturdy.
LNG, refining, and a little geopolitical spice
The real story is the one underneath the headline miss. TotalEnergies said oil and gas production held up at 2.395 million boe/day thanks to ramp-ups in Brazil, the U.S., and Libya, even with Middle East disruptions in the mix. Downstream, refining and chemicals were having a very un-energy-company-like great time: stronger margins, better trading, and healthier marketing all helped the quarter.
Management is basically saying, “hold my crude”
For Q3, the company is calling for:
- LNG selling prices above $11.5/Mbtu
- European gas prices in the $16–$20/Mbtu range
- Refinery utilization of 80%–85%
- Production growth of 3% year over year, excluding Middle East disruptions
That’s a pretty confident setup, especially with TotalEnergies also reaffirming its $15 billion 2026 investment plan.
Cash return mode stays on
Shareholders also got the usual sweetener: a second interim dividend of €0.90 per share, up 5.9% year over year, plus $1.5 billion in third-quarter buyback authorization after the company already repurchased 16.9 million shares for $1.5 billion in Q2.
Big picture: the quarter had enough misses to keep the accountants busy, but the outlook is what investors are really buying here. If LNG and refining stay hot, TotalEnergies could keep acting less like a cyclical energy name and more like a cash machine with a passport.