SPCX
New deal? Nope — new debate
Morgan Stanley is basically telling investors: “You’re being too dramatic.” The bank reiterated its buy-equivalent view on SpaceX and stuck with a $300 price target, even as the stock has gotten clipped and traders are acting like the sky is falling.
The spicy part: Morgan Stanley says more than half of that valuation is tied to SpaceX’s AI business, including Grok and Cursor. In other words, the market may be treating the AI segment like a fancy garnish when the bank thinks it’s the main course.
Why ETF traders suddenly care
This isn’t just a stock-picking story. It’s also a levered-ETF soap opera.
Funds like SPAX, SPCG, and SPCH are built to juice upside when SpaceX moves higher, while SSPC and SNK are the “bet against it” version of the same trade. If the stock keeps wobbling around the levels investors are whispering about, those ETFs can swing hard — which is great if you like action and terrible if you like sleep.
The real battleground: AI value vs. lockup fear
The market’s current fear is simple: once insider lockups expire next month, SpaceX could drift toward $100, which would imply almost no value for the AI business. Morgan Stanley says that disconnect is exactly the opportunity.
That’s the whole tug-of-war here:
- Bulls think the market is underpricing the AI story
- Bears think the AI spend is expensive and the payoff is fuzzy
- ETF issuers are happily watching all this volatility do its thing
Big picture
Whether you’re bullish or bearish, the takeaway is the same: SpaceX is becoming less of a “company story” and more of a “trading vehicle story.” And when a stock turns into a volatility machine, the ETF crowd usually shows up with snacks.