SPCX
Why the stock keeps sinking
SpaceX is doing that very annoying public-market thing where the company can do something genuinely impressive and the stock still yawns. Even after a successful Starship test flight over the weekend, shares kept drifting lower Monday because the market is fixated on one giant overhang: the first lock-up expiration on Aug. 6.
That lock-up could free up to 911.5 million shares, and when your public float is only about 4% to 5% of the company, even the possibility of a big supply wave can make investors act like the elevator doors are opening on a black Friday crowd.
Earnings are coming, and Musk is basically saying: don’t ask for a quarter-by-quarter story
SpaceX is also set to report its first earnings as a public company on Aug. 4. That’s a big milestone, sure, but Elon Musk has already made it clear he’s not running the business for the next three months. He’s talking decade-long returns, which is very on-brand and very unhelpful if you’re trying to model next quarter in a neat little spreadsheet.
Mars, Starship, and the long-game vibe
Musk’s latest Mars post added to the long-term, moonshot energy. He said he’ll “not forget about Mars,” and reiterated that SpaceX still wants to push toward a Martian city in the next five to seven years. Translation: the company’s capital priorities are still aimed at sci-fi-scale ambition, not near-term polish.
Meanwhile, the Starship test flight gave bulls something real to celebrate. The rocket released 20 Starlink V3 satellites and hit its landing target in the Indian Ocean, but the market didn’t exactly throw a parade. That’s the public-market version of getting an A on the science fair project and still being grounded.
Big picture: investors seem less worried about what SpaceX can launch and more worried about how much stock could hit the market next. For now, that supply hangover is doing the talking.