CRCL
Bernstein’s vibe check: less hype, still bullish
Bernstein took a scalpel to Circle’s target price, not a sledgehammer. The firm cut its view to $140 from $190 but kept an Outperform rating, which is analyst code for: we’re not quitting, we’re just lowering the ceiling a bit.
The reason? Circle’s second quarter looked basically flat, with USDC supply around $73 billion, down from $77 billion in Q1. Bernstein also chopped its end-of-2026 USDC estimate by 37% to $83 billion and its 2028 estimate by 40% to about $170 billion. That flowed into a 12% cut to its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast, now $602 million.
The big scary thing: Open USD
A lot of the recent pressure came from the June launch of Open USD, a stablecoin consortium backed by more than 140 payments, banking, and fintech names — including Visa and Mastercard. The market saw that and basically muttered, “Uh oh, competition.” Bernstein’s take: don’t overreact.
Why? The firm says Circle has been signing MOUs with many of the same players, and some of the supposed coalition members seem less than fully committed. Bernstein also pointed to Visa’s latest earnings commentary, where management said it would stay multi-coin and multi-chain rather than backing one single stablecoin like some kind of crypto prom courtship.
The Coinbase wrinkle
There is one real revenue bruise here: Coinbase. Circle and Coinbase reportedly agreed in May to redirect roughly 90% of reserve income on USDC held on Hyperliquid back to the exchange. That’s not huge in the grand scheme of Circle’s story, but it does bite margin, and Bernstein says the full hit shows up in Q3.
Circle has also been trying to collect good-news confetti — including its national trust bank approval and a patent-related win — but the stock hasn’t exactly thrown a party. Instead, CRCL keeps drifting toward its $60 to $62 support zone, the kind of chart behavior that makes bulls sweat through their button-downs.
Big picture: Bernstein still likes the long game for Circle, but the road looks bumpier now. The stablecoin market may keep growing, but the near-term version of that story looks a lot less like a moonshot and a lot more like a grind.