JPMorgan says Nike’s comeback is taking its sweet time

Not exactly a victory lap

Nike’s “Win Now” makeover was supposed to be the clean-up act: tighter focus, better product, stronger consumer connection, the whole glow-up package. JPMorgan isn’t buying the fast finish, though. Analyst Matthew Boss cut Nike from Neutral to Underweight and dropped his price target from $47 to $40, basically saying: this reboot is real, but it’s not going to pay off on your timeline.

The bank also shaved its forecasts, with earnings estimates now running about 20% below consensus. That’s the kind of gap that makes investors lean back in their chair and ask, “Okay, so what exactly is the plan here?”

China is where the plot thickens

The biggest wrinkle is Nike’s China strategy. JPMorgan says Nike plans to anchor its digital marketplace around official flagship stores on Alibaba’s Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin starting in January January 2027, while partner-operated storefronts exit the mix.

That sounds tidy on a strategy slide. In the real world, it could mean an annualized revenue headwind of more than $1 billion. Ouch. And because Greater China is expected to take longer to recover than North America, this isn’t just a short-term speed bump — it’s a drawn-out rebuild.

Why investors should care

Nike still has the brand, the scale, and the distribution machine. But turnarounds are messy, and this one may be closer to a marathon than a sprint.

• Near-term margins may stay under pressure as the company keeps reshaping its business
• China looks like the slowest piece of the puzzle
• The stock is already feeling the squeeze, with shares down 2.05% in Tuesday trading when the note hit

Big picture: Nike may still get to the finish line — JPMorgan just thinks it’ll take longer, cost more, and test investor patience along the way.