GOOG
XSPC
New math, same moonshot
SpaceX is no longer just the company that launches rockets and makes your inner 12-year-old say “wow.” On Wednesday’s earnings call, it said it’s looking at a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by the end of 2026. That’s not a typo. That’s a “we’re building a different kind of monster” number.
The Street says one thing. Munster says another.
Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management took that guidance and ran with it. His take: if SpaceX is already pointing to about $8.5 billion in monthly revenue by December 2026, and that keeps compounding, then 2027 revenue could hit $135 billion. Wall Street, for now, is closer to $100 billion.
That gap matters because valuation is basically just a group project between expectations and confidence. The bigger the revenue runway, the easier it is for bulls to argue that SpaceX is still early in its growth arc — not just in rockets, but in compute, satellites, and whatever else Elon decides to colonize next.
Why Google is in the frame
This story also drags Alphabet into the orbit. Munster pointed to SpaceX’s compute contracts with companies like Google, which means the SpaceX growth story isn’t happening in a vacuum. If those contracts stick, expand, or reset at higher volumes, that’s more evidence the company’s business is becoming more diversified — and more expensive to ignore.
Big picture: SpaceX is starting to look less like a “what if” and more like a “how big can this get?” problem. And when a private company starts making public-market investors do this much math, you know the plot has thickened.