SNDK
The vibe check got downgraded
SanDisk just delivered a classic Wall Street plot twist: a strong quarter, followed by a very loud “yeah, but…” Jefferies’ Blayne Curtis slashed his price target to $1,750 from $3,000, saying the real issue isn’t the backward-looking results — it’s the softer September-quarter setup.
What spooked the bulls?
The whole argument hangs on NAND pricing. SanDisk guided to only modest average selling price gains for the September quarter, which is a lot less exciting than the pricing rocket fuel that helped the stock rip over the past year. When the party music slows down, suddenly every margin line gets a little more scrutiny.
Management also guided to basically stable gross margins for the quarter. That’s not a disaster — the company’s 83% to 85% range still sits ahead of Street expectations — but it’s apparently not enough to keep the “margins only go up” crowd happy.
The bigger question: how much of this boom is left?
A few analysts are still waving the flashlight at the same tunnel. Some say long-term supply commitments cover only part of SanDisk’s bits, while the rest of the NAND market is still seeing chunky price increases. Translation: the business may have more visibility than the bears think, but the market is clearly debating how much upside is already baked in.
Big picture: SanDisk is still riding a monster rally, but when a stock has already levitated like a caffeinated kangaroo, even a modest guidance reset can feel like a trapdoor.