XSPC
The lockup scare didn’t land
SpaceX spent Thursday doing something the bears probably hated: rising on the same day more than 900 million insider-held shares became eligible to hit the market. That’s a lot of potential supply — roughly $101 billion worth at midday prices — and yet the immediate selloff everyone was bracing for didn’t really show up.
Morgan Stanley’s vibe: bullish, not panicked
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas basically told investors to stop treating the unlock like a horror movie trailer. He called SpaceX a “potential generational compounder” and kept an Overweight view with a $300 mid-2027 target, which implies the stock could nearly triple from current levels.
His argument is classic big-tech-future-meets-space-drama:
- Launch and satellite connectivity still matter a lot
- The AI piece is where the real upside lives in his model
- The company’s infrastructure could monetize demand even if its own AI models aren’t the winner
Why this matters for your portfolio
This is the kind of call that can reset how investors think about the stock. If SpaceX really becomes a kind of “neocloud” — renting out compute and infrastructure to other AI players — then it’s not just a rockets-and-satellites story anymore.
That said, there’s a catch: the unlock doesn’t disappear just because the stock held up for one day. Insiders can still sell over time, so the supply overhang may be more slow-burn than instant splat. Big picture: SpaceX is trying to prove it’s more than a moonshot story — it wants to be a platform, a compute landlord, and maybe the weirdest AI winner in the room.