SPCX
First unlock, first surprise
SpaceX stock had every reason to look rattled on Thursday. Roughly 911.5 million shares became eligible for sale — a giant wave of potential supply that had folks bracing for a messy drop — but SPCX actually closed up 6.14% at $114.92.
That’s the market equivalent of expecting a food fight and getting a polite standing ovation. The unlock expanded the tradable pool from 4.9% to 11.8%, so this was a meaningful stress test for the stock. It passed the first test, but barely.
The overhang isn’t gone
Here’s the catch: this wasn’t the end of the lockup story, just the opening scene.
- More shares are set to unlock in staggered tranches every 15 to 20 days through October
- Another big chunk comes after third-quarter earnings
- The full 180-day lockup expires on December 8, 2026
So while Thursday’s action suggests buyers were willing to absorb the supply, the stock still has a lot of gravity to fight. One good day doesn’t mean the rocket is back in orbit.
Why investors should care
The debate now is whether SpaceX can keep shrugging off this supply hangover or whether insider selling turns into a slow leak. Bulls are still pointing to Starlink and AI-related growth, but the near-term setup is all about float expansion, technical levels, and whether the stock can reclaim $125 — then $135, the IPO price, if it really wants to turn the page.
Big picture: the first lockup cliff didn’t break SpaceX, but there’s plenty more cliff ahead.