DIA
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Old bull, new highs
If you’ve been eyeing the S&P 500 and thinking, “Wow, this rally has been running longer than some streaming shows,” Ryan Detrick has a message for you: not so fast. He says the current bull market is 3.8 years old, and history suggests that’s hardly ancient.
The big idea here is simple: bull markets often outlive the panic clock in your head. Detrick points to historical data showing the average bull market lasts about 5.6 years, with some absolute marathon runs — like the one that started in 1987 and lasted 12.3 years, or the post-2009 surge that kept climbing for 11 years.
The market took a breather, not a nap
He also argues that the recent 11-week sideways stretch after a 16% rally in April and May looked more like a pause button than the start of a collapse. In his view, markets can cool off by time instead of price, and this one just spent some time catching its breath before breaking higher again.
That matters because investors love to declare a top whenever the index gets too comfy at the summit. But if history is any guide, a bull market getting “old” doesn’t automatically mean it’s ready for the retirement home.
What you should actually care about
The S&P 500 has already logged 26 new all-time highs this year, with SPY, QQQ, and DIA all riding the same broad-market wave. Translation: the trend is still doing trend things.
Big picture: age is a data point, not a death sentence. Until the market starts breaking down in a meaningful way, the bull case still has the stronger resume.