The apocalypse still needs evidence
Everyone loves a good robot-takes-your-job storyline. But Bank of America’s latest look at the labor market says the headline might be running hotter than the data.
The bank dug through 206 industries and found almost no correlation between AI exposure and job growth since ChatGPT arrived in late 2022. In plain English: the industries most exposed to AI have mostly gone sideways, while less-exposed industries managed to grow a bit. So far, AI looks more like a task-scrubber than an occupation-killer.
The sneaky part: it’s not painless everywhere
That doesn’t mean everyone gets a participation trophy.
BofA says the pressure is showing up more clearly in:
- information
- finance and insurance
- younger workers, especially recent grads aged 22–27
That’s the part investors should actually care about. AI may not be vaporizing entire payrolls, but it could be trimming entry-level and white-collar demand first — which is a very different story than a broad labor-market meltdown.
The flip side: AI is hiring, just not where you expect
Here’s the plot twist. The same AI buildout that’s making some office jobs feel shakier is also pumping money into construction, manufacturing and data-center infrastructure.
That’s why companies like Vertiv keep showing up in the conversation. The Ohio-based power-and-cooling gear maker is expanding its manufacturing footprint to meet demand tied to AI infrastructure, and BofA says nonresidential construction and AI-related manufacturing have already accounted for roughly a quarter of new private-sector jobs this year.
So the labor story isn’t “AI destroys jobs” so much as “AI moves jobs around like a giant corporate game of musical chairs.”
Big picture
For investors, that’s a pretty important distinction. The market has spent years pricing in a clean, scary AI labor shock. BofA’s data says the evidence for that is still thin — but the pressure points are real, and they’re starting to show up in the places that hire young workers and knowledge workers first.