XSPC
The bull case just took a coffee break
SpaceX is still growing like it drank three energy drinks, but the latest note says the stock is getting hard to justify at this price. The big issue? Revenue jumped 92% year over year to $7.81 billion, which sounds terrific, until you look at the spending firehose underneath it.
CapEx goes brrrr
CapEx reportedly surged to $18.37 billion, with AI infrastructure alone eating $15.83 billion. That’s not “investing for the future” in a cute LinkedIn-post way — that’s a serious cash burn setup, and it raises the usual question: how much growth do you need before the bill stops looking heroic and starts looking absurd?
Starlink’s pricing power is wobbling
The note also flags Starlink’s ARPU down 22% year over year, which is the kind of detail that makes margin bulls suddenly stare at the ceiling. Lower pricing power plus Amazon entering the arena is a rough combo, because now SpaceX isn’t just trying to grow — it’s trying to defend the moat while someone else is building a trench next door.
Big picture: SpaceX still has the kind of growth numbers that make investors lean in, but this rating says the stock may have outrun the fundamentals. When capex is huge, pricing gets softer, and competition is circling, even a rocket ship can start to look expensive.