Morning jitters
U.S. stock futures were sliding early Tuesday, with the market doing that classic thing where it tries to price in geopolitics, bond yields, and earnings all at once. The vibe? Not exactly champagne and confetti. S&P 500 futures were down 0.41%, Nasdaq 100 futures off 0.76%, and traders were also staring at a beefier risk premium thanks to a fresh flare-up in the Middle East.
The Iran factor keeps everything spicy
The latest tension came after President Donald Trump declined to extend a 60-day temporary ceasefire with Iran, and an Iranian official warned that Tehran could shift to a “fully offensive” posture if talks fall apart. That’s not the kind of headline that makes oil traders sleepy. Brent crude popped to $91.27 a barrel and WTI climbed to $84.20, which is a reminder that when the Strait of Hormuz gets nervous, the rest of the market tends to start sweating through its shirt.
Earnings and data are the other shoe
As if geopolitics weren’t enough, investors are also bracing for earnings from retail and tech names like Home Depot and Baidu, plus a stack of economic reports on housing starts, import prices, industrial production, capacity utilization, and pending home sales. In other words: the market has a full calendar and a short fuse.
The bull case still exists, annoyingly
There’s at least one reason the bulls haven’t packed up yet. Market strategist Ed Yardeni says his “Fed’s Stock Valuation Model” still suggests equities may not be wildly overpriced, even with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing. Translation: stocks may be a little less expensive than the doom-scroll crowd wants you to think. Big picture: the opening bell could be messy, but this is more about macro crosscurrents than any single company story.