XSPC
Big moonshot, bigger spreadsheet
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas basically told investors they’re thinking too small about SpaceX. In a Wednesday note, he reiterated an Overweight rating and a $300 price target, which implies more than 70% upside from Tuesday’s close.
The Louisiana-sized ambition
The reason for the optimism? SpaceX’s newly disclosed $100 billion launch complex in Louisiana. The plan calls for a new Starbase facility in Vermilion Parish that could eventually support 15 launch pads, with three more expected to be operational by the end of 2027. That’s not a little expansion. That’s “we brought a second suitcase for our suitcase.”
Jonas argues that even conservative launch assumptions make the math look wild. Morgan Stanley’s model only uses two launches per pad per day, and still gets to roughly 5,800 Starship launches annually by 2040. In other words, the market may be underestimating just how big the launch cadence could get.
Why investors should care
This isn’t just about rockets going brrr:
- Launch services could scale faster than the market expects
- Starlink still adds a recurring revenue layer
- Jonas also points to AI upside tied to SpaceX’s merger with xAI
Big picture: SpaceX’s valuation debate is drifting further from “can they do it?” and toward “how many zeros can this thing justify?”