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The smartphone market is about to get a lot uglier
IDC is basically saying the smartphone party is over — at least for unit growth. The firm projects global shipments to drop 16.7% in 2026 to just over 1 billion phones, with memory costs doing a very convincing impression of a wrecking ball.
Apple’s the kid in class who somehow still gets an A
Here’s the twist: Apple doesn’t look like it’s walking into the same buzzsaw as the Android crowd. IDC expects iOS shipments to fall only 1.3%, while iOS market share climbs to a record 23.6%. Translation: if everyone else is selling fewer phones, Apple still gets to keep more of the pie.
That matters because higher NAND and DRAM prices — up more than 300% year over year, according to IDC — are squeezing lower-priced Android devices the hardest. When the cheap phones get harder to make profitably, the whole market starts acting less like a bazaar and more like a luxury mall.
Foldables: now with extra Apple aura
IDC also thinks foldables are moving from gadget-y science project to actual business. It expects Apple to ship more than 17 million foldable iPhones in 2027 and capture about 40% of global foldable shipments. If that happens, Apple doesn’t just get another product line — it gets another high-margin lane to cruise in while rivals are stuck dodging cost pressure.
Big picture: the next smartphone cycle may be less about who ships the most and more about who can charge the most. That’s usually Apple’s favorite game.