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MRVL
The market wanted a bigger confetti cannon
Marvell just did the corporate version of saying, “We’re up, and by a lot,” only for investors to reply, “Cool, but can you hurry?” The company raised its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook by $500 million to about $12 billion and its fiscal 2028 outlook by $1.5 billion to about $18 billion. Solid. But after a monster 220%+ rally over the past year, apparently solid is just not sexy enough.
The Google deal is the long game
Needham says Marvell’s commercial agreement with Google could be worth up to $120 billion in revenue over the next six years if every milestone gets hit. That’s the kind of number that makes your spreadsheet blink. But there’s a catch: the big payoff is expected to land later, not tomorrow, which means investors are stuck waiting while the stock tries to live up to the hype.
Margins are taking the first hit
The AI custom chip business is growing fast, but faster growth isn’t always prettier growth. Marvell said lower-margin custom AI chips are temporarily pressuring gross margins, which is basically the market’s least favorite plot twist. So yes, the AI engine is getting stronger — but the profitability story needs time to catch up.
The Street is still bullish, just less dreamy
Rosenblatt kept a Buy rating and slapped on a $300 target. Needham did the same, also landing at $300, after raising its own forecast. Meanwhile, Marvell shares were down about 10% to $217.41 on Friday. In other words: the analysts are still cheering, but the market is acting like it already saw the trailer and wants the full movie.
Big picture: Marvell’s AI narrative is real, and Google could be a gigantic revenue engine. But right now investors are asking the only question that matters: when does the hype turn into earnings you can actually bank?