NKE
Nike’s not exactly getting a victory lap
JPMorgan is still sitting in the Underweight camp on Nike, and this time the bank’s message was basically: the road ahead looks bumpier than the market thinks. Analyst Matthew Boss said Nike could earn $1.55 a share in fiscal 2027, below the $1.72 consensus sitting on Wall Street’s desk like a too-optimistic latte order.
That matters because Nike isn’t being judged on nostalgia. Investors want to know whether the swoosh can still muscle its way back to growth, or whether the brand is stuck in a long, annoying detox period.
China is the giant headache
JPMorgan flagged Greater China as a major pressure point. Partners Pou Sheng and Topsports started clearing inventory early in July, ahead of the planned end of online sales distribution on January 1, 2027.
The bank said that cutoff alone could create an annualized revenue headwind of more than $1 billion. That’s not a rounding error. That’s the kind of number that makes CFOs stare into the middle distance.
Discounts, rivals, and the “ankle-biter” problem
It’s not just China. JPMorgan also sees:
- Aggressive discounting in North America and EMEA as inventories stay bloated
- Weak consumer sentiment and delayed back-to-school demand
- Rising competition from smaller specialist brands that are nibbling away at share
Boss called out so-called “ankle biter” brands now grabbing about 17% combined market share, which is a fancy way of saying Nike’s moat might be looking more like a puddle.
Why investors should care
JPMorgan thinks Nike’s revenue could fall 5.9% year over year in Q2 and 4.6% in the second half of fiscal 2027, both worse than Street expectations. Translation: this isn’t just a one-quarter hiccup — it’s a reminder that the brand recovery story may be slower, pricier, and a lot less linear than bulls want.
Nike shares were down 0.88% to $39.25 when this note hit. Big picture: if you own the stock, you’re not just betting on sneakers — you’re betting on Nike proving it can stop losing ground in a market that’s getting more crowded by the minute.