NBIS
Wall Street, meet the power bill
Nebius is basically saying: yes, the revenue numbers are nice, but the real game is how much AI infrastructure it can actually bring online. The company now targets $3.0-$3.4 billion in 2026 revenue and a $7-$9 billion exit run rate, which is a fancy way of saying the growth curve is still pointing at the moon.
The not-so-glamorous moat
The bigger tell is on the infrastructure side. Connected power could reach 800 MW to 1 GW by year-end, and contracted power targets have jumped to 5 GW. That matters because in AI infrastructure, power is the new oil — except way harder to drill, permit, and finance.
- Customer prepayments may top $9 billion in 2026
- Recent contracts appear to cover roughly 50%-60% of the related infrastructure capex
- That suggests customers are helping bankroll the buildout, which lowers some risk but also shows just how capital-hungry this business is
Why investors should care
This is the classic growth-stock double-edged sword: the top line is accelerating, but the spend needed to get there is enormous. If Nebius keeps landing contracts and turning capacity into revenue, the market may keep rewarding the story. If not, investors could end up staring at a very expensive power grid with a Nasdaq ticker attached.
Big picture: Nebius is trying to turn gigawatts into growth, and Wall Street is still deciding whether that’s genius or just very pricey electricity.