SMR
UBS just hit the brakes
NuScale Power got a rough morning coffee courtesy of UBS, which downgraded the stock to Sell from Neutral and chopped its price target to $6 from $10. That’s a pretty blunt message: the market may be getting a little too excited about a company that still has a lot of proving to do.
Why UBS is frowning
The big gripe? Time. UBS says NuScale is staring down a five-plus-year build timeline, which is not exactly the kind of schedule that makes investors clap like they’re at the end of a Taylor Swift concert. The firm also pointed to:
- limited firm customer commitments
- setbacks tied to the RoPower project in Romania
- slow progress on the Tennessee Valley Authority agreement
UBS now assumes only one project starts construction in 2028, which is a much slower ramp than bulls probably want to hear.
The cash burn math gets ugly
The note also laid out a chunky burn path, with UBS expecting about $700 million in cumulative cash burn from 2026 through 2028. Revenue is still projected to grow, from $185 million in 2028 to $924 million in 2030, but earnings are expected to stay negative through 2030. So yes, there’s growth — just not the kind that pays the bills anytime soon.
Big picture: valuation vs. reality
UBS says the stock’s current price implies roughly $124 million of 2028 EBITDA, while its own forecast is only $29 million. Translation: the market may be pricing in a much smoother, faster nuclear rollout than the business can actually deliver.
For investors, this is the classic “great story, messy timeline” problem. NuScale still has the futuristic small-modular-reactor narrative, but UBS is basically asking: when does the power plant stop being a PowerPoint and start being a revenue stream?