TSLA
Diesel just became Tesla’s sales pitch
Morgan Stanley’s latest note basically says: the more painful diesel gets, the prettier Tesla’s Semi story looks. With U.S. diesel prices at a record $6.06 a gallon, analyst Andrew Percoco argues Tesla could eventually turn the Semi into an $80 billion value driver.
The real prize? Software, not metal
The bank thinks Tesla could have 82,000 Semis on the road by 2040, which would open up about $17 billion in software revenue and $7.5 billion in EBIT. That’s because Tesla may be able to charge fleets $12,000 to $18,000 per truck per month for self-driving software — a number that sounds wild until you remember Wall Street loves a good recurring-revenue fairy tale.
Big hopes, tiny near-term reality
There’s a catch, of course: Tesla hasn’t actually operated autonomous Semis yet, and Elon Musk says self-driving on the truck may not be ready until the end of 2026 or early 2027. Production is also still ramping, while Kalshi traders are only giving Tesla a 37% chance of producing more than 1,000 Semis in a quarter this year.
Big picture
So yes, the upside math is flashy. But right now investors are still staring at the gap between Tesla’s sci-fi spreadsheet and the very unglamorous business of building trucks at scale.