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Marvell’s AI story just got a bigger megaphone
Marvell Technology is having one of those “wait, this thing is still running?” moments. The stock is already up about 180% this year, but Bank of America says the real AI prize may be much larger than the market thinks.
At an investor lunch in New York, BofA analyst Vivek Arya left sounding pretty fired up after chatting with CEO Matt Murphy and CFO Dan Durn. His take: Marvell may be underestimating how big the market for custom AI chips, plus the stuff wired around them, could get by 2030.
The part investors should care about
Here’s the meat of it: Arya says the market could hit roughly $300 billion by 2030, which is about 5 to 6 times bigger than Marvell’s own $55 billion sizing for 2028. That’s a fancy way of saying the runway might be a lot longer than the company’s current slide deck suggests.
A few juicy details from the lunch:
- Marvell now ships into all four of the biggest U.S. cloud providers
- Amazon is its lead customer, and management expects orders there to keep growing every year
- Microsoft is expected to start ramping next year
- Google parent Alphabet has a networking and connectivity deal that management says won’t crimp existing products
Why the stock got extra attention
BofA kept a Buy rating and slapped on a $365 price target, which implies about 54% upside from where the stock was trading when the note landed. That’s the kind of math that makes investors sit up straight and stop doomscrolling for a second.
The analyst also said Marvell’s optics business could keep scaling, even with fresh competition chatter around Qualcomm’s deal with Amazon. Management basically shrugged that off and said it doesn’t change Marvell’s own setup.
Big picture
This isn’t just about one analyst getting excited over coffee and PowerPoint. If Marvell really does become a core supplier in the custom AI buildout, the story shifts from “nice rally” to “maybe this is still early.” Investors will get another big check-in on October 6th, when Marvell hosts its analyst day and can update the market sizing math, margins, and earnings outlook.