TSLA
Goldman says, “pump the brakes”
Tesla bulls got a small reality check Thursday. Goldman Sachs trimmed its Q3 delivery forecast for the EV giant to 435,000 vehicles, down from 490,000, while keeping a Neutral rating and a $360 price target in place.
That new call sits below Visible Alpha consensus at 456,000 and way under the roughly 480,000 level prediction traders on Kalshi seem to be orbiting. In other words: Wall Street and the betting crowd are looking at the same car and somehow seeing two very different odometers.
Why Goldman’s getting cautious
Goldman’s logic is pretty straightforward: sales have looked softer in the U.S., China, and Europe. The firm also flagged that Tesla’s last quarter got a boost from inventory drawdown, which can be a handy one-time sugar rush but not exactly a forever strategy.
A few data points behind the caution:
- U.S. August sales were estimated at 40,816 vehicles, down 26% year over year
- China retail sales fell 12.4% to 50,047 vehicles in August
- Q2 deliveries topped production by about 28,000 vehicles, which helped pad the number
Goldman does see one possible cushion: exports out of Tesla’s Shanghai factory are still growing, which could help offset some of the weakness elsewhere. But the headline is still the headline — 435,000 is a lot closer to “rough quarter” than “all systems go.”
What it means for you
Tesla doesn’t have a Q3 delivery date on the calendar yet, but this is the kind of estimate that can steer sentiment long before the official numbers land. If Tesla comes in closer to Kalshi’s 480,000-ish midpoint, the market gets a nice little victory lap. If Goldman is closer to right, expect the usual Tesla drama: less “EV rocket ship,” more “why is the dashboard lit up again?”
Big picture: for Tesla, delivery expectations are the stock’s favorite soap opera, and Goldman just wrote a gloomier next episode.