COST
Wall Street’s Costco obsession continues
Costco is headed into its Q4 earnings report on Thursday, Sept. 24, and the analyst crowd is doing what it does best: tweaking models and pretending that tiny target changes are a decisive philosophical statement.
The headline number to watch is pretty chunky. Analysts expect Costco to post $6.53 a share on $94.89 billion in revenue, both above last year’s $5.87 a share and $86.16 billion in sales. That’s a lot of membership-card-powered momentum to keep up, which is why the stock can get twitchy if the numbers even slightly miss the script.
The analyst chorus: still bullish, just a little less enthusiastic
Here’s the vibe from the latest round of calls:
- Oppenheimer kept an Outperform rating and left its target at $1,160
- BofA stayed at Buy but cut its target from $1,200 to $1,095
- BTIG reiterated Buy with a $1,125 target
- JPMorgan held Overweight but trimmed its target from $1,110 to $1,100
- TD Cowen kept Buy and a $1,175 target
So no one’s exactly running for the exits. But some of the biggest voices are dialing back the enthusiasm a notch, which usually means the bar for a clean earnings pop is getting taller, not shorter.
Why investors should care
Costco is one of those stocks that can turn into a crowd-pleaser for years, then get smacked the moment the math stops being magical. If the company delivers another sturdy quarter — especially on revenue and membership strength — bulls will argue the premium valuation is justified.
The DoorDash mention is more side dish than main course, though it does show Costco’s ecosystem keeps getting a little more app-shaped. Big picture: when everyone is still bullish but expectations are climbing even higher, the only thing more important than good numbers is good enough numbers.