Earnings are still running hot
Goldman strategists led by Ben Snider are basically saying the market’s favorite party trick — earnings growing faster than the economy — may not last forever. In a recent note, they see S&P 500 earnings per share growth slowing to 11% in 2027 and 2028.
That’s still growth. Just less of the ‘Wow, is this thing in turbo mode?’ kind investors have gotten used to.
Why bubble-watchers care
When profits keep sprinting, it’s easier to justify pricey stocks. But if earnings start to downshift while valuations stay lofty, the math gets a little less friendly — and the bubble debate gets a fresh pot of coffee.
What investors are really watching:
- whether earnings can keep outrunning GDP-like growth for much longer
- if market multiples stay elevated anyway
- whether the slowdown is orderly… or the kind that makes portfolio managers start stress-eating
The big picture
This isn’t a doom forecast, but it is a reminder that markets can get used to winning so much they forget what normal looks like. If earnings growth cools off, stocks may need another excuse to keep levitating. Big picture: the higher the bar gets, the more expensive disappointment becomes.