AAPL
Premium first, questions later
Apple’s latest iPhone shuffle is basically the smartphone version of serving dessert before dinner. The company is rolling out the Pro and Pro Max ahead of the base model, and Gene Munster thinks that move is working because buyers are apparently fine paying up now instead of waiting around for the cheaper version.
The Duo is the wildcard
Munster says lead times for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are running 15% longer than a year ago, which is a decent hint that demand isn’t exactly falling off a cliff. The bigger story, though, is the foldable Duo, which starts preorders on October 16th and hits deliveries on October 23rd. At an average selling price of about $2,100, this is not your bargain-bin iPhone.
Street estimates: too polite?
Munster argues consensus is still too cautious on iPhone revenue for fiscal 2027, with estimates around $9.5 billion that may not fully reflect the Duo’s price tag. He thinks the new device could wind up as roughly 8% of iPhone units and 14% of iPhone revenue next year — which, if true, is the kind of mix shift that makes Wall Street spreadsheets look a little embarrassed.
Big picture
Apple stock already has a lot of iPhone 18 buzz baked in, but premium demand and a successful foldable launch could give the bulls another reason to lean in. If the Duo catches on, the iPhone story stops being about unit growth alone and starts looking a lot more like an average-selling-price flex.