NVDA
China-sized asterisk
Nvidia's latest forecast comes with a very specific little footnote: no data center compute revenue from China is baked into the $108.0 billion fiscal third-quarter sales outlook. That’s not exactly the kind of detail investors like to see tucked into the fine print.
Why you should care
For Nvidia, China is one of those markets that can swing from “massive opportunity” to “political headache” depending on which way the tariff wind is blowing. If the Sept. 24 U.S.-China summit opens the door even a crack, Nvidia could reclaim a chunk of demand that’s currently sitting in the penalty box.
The market math
Right now, investors are being asked to model Nvidia as if China’s data center business is a total zero. That’s a conservative setup, sure — but also a reminder that the stock is still hostage to geopolitics in a way most chip charts would rather not be.
- No China data center compute revenue is included in the current outlook.
- The upcoming summit could change the policy backdrop.
- Any easing could give the revenue estimate some surprise upside.
Big picture: Nvidia doesn’t just need more AI demand. It needs fewer political landmines in the way of selling the stuff.