GOOG
Search is still the boss
Alphabet’s got a lot going on — Gemini, TPUs, safety talk, the whole AI buffet — but Evercore ISI’s Mark Mahaney basically boiled the story down to one sentence: if Search sneezes, Google stock catches a cold.
And that’s the part investors should care about. Search still drives more than half of Alphabet’s revenue and, by Mahaney’s estimate, over 70% of its profits. So even if the AI headlines are flashier, the old money machine is still the main character.
The comeback tour
The good news for Alphabet bulls? Mahaney says the company appears to be regaining search share after losing some ground earlier in 2025 as users flirted with ChatGPT.
Now Google’s core search product looks stronger again, especially in commercial searches — think travel, restaurants, and other “I’m ready to buy something” queries. That matters because those searches feed the ad business, and ads are the reason Alphabet’s finance folks sleep at night.
Gemini vs. ChatGPT: closer than you think
On the AI side, Evercore says Gemini is narrowing the gap with ChatGPT and is now within roughly three percentage points in consumer agent awareness. That’s not a victory lap, but it’s not a bad look either.
The firm also sees more upside from:
- Gemini Spark, which needs to get better as Meta and OpenAI keep cranking up the pressure
- Gemini 4, the next frontier model Alphabet could roll out later this year
- TPU adoption, which could be another growth leg if customers keep leaning into Google’s chips
Why this still matters for your portfolio
Alphabet shares were already getting a little premarket lift, and the big message here is pretty simple: AI may be rewriting the rules, but Search is still the cash register.
If Google keeps its search throne while Gemini keeps inching forward, that’s a pretty decent setup for the stock. Big picture: the market doesn’t need Alphabet to win every AI skirmish — it just needs the core engine to keep humming.