Peak talk? CLSA says, not so fast
The latest debate in AI land is basically: has the party already gone on too long? CLSA’s Bhavtosh Vajpayee says that idea is “utterly wrong,” arguing that demand for GPUs and ASICs is still running about 73% ahead of supply.
That’s not exactly the kind of gap you close with a polite email and a few extra factory shifts.
Why investors should care
If the shortage is real and getting worse, then the AI buildout may keep fueling chip demand longer than skeptics expect. In other words:
- chipmakers could keep enjoying a long demand tail
- supply chain bottlenecks may stay sticky
- the idea that the AI semiconductor cycle peaks as early as 2028 looks a lot shakier
CLSA’s view is that supply and demand may not get back into balance until 2030. That matters because semis have been one of the market’s favorite “how long can this last?” trades. If the answer is “longer than you thought,” the winners in AI silicon may keep riding the wave.
Big picture
This doesn’t mean the whole AI trade is invincible. It just means the doomsayers may be trying to call the ending credits while the movie is still in the opening act.