The new bottleneck isn’t chips — it’s cash
Howard Marks just took a break from reminding everyone that the world is weird to point out something even weirder: the AI boom may be so capital-hungry that it helps keep interest rates elevated. In his Sept. 22 memo, the Oaktree co-founder argued that the combination of huge U.S. deficits and a multi-trillion-dollar AI buildout is cranking up demand for money.
Why that matters to your portfolio
Think of capital like concert tickets. If the government, tech giants, and data-center developers all show up at once, the price goes up. Marks’ point is that more borrowing and more equity issuance can pressure yields higher, which is annoying if you were hoping for a nice little rate-cut fantasy montage.
What he’s flagging:
- AI-related data-center spending could top $5 trillion worldwide through 2030
- Treasury refinancing and new debt issuance are already massive
- The result could be stickier yields and fewer “easy money” vibes
The ETF angle
Marks wasn’t pitching trades, but the article points to a few ways investors are trying to play the theme anyway. DTCR and SRVR lean into data centers, XLU captures the utilities that power all this digital plumbing, and SOXX covers the semiconductor names selling the picks and shovels.
Big picture: if AI is the new industrial revolution, then the real constraint may not be demand — it may be who gets to borrow the money to build it.