PLTR
The weirdest kind of loss
Palantir just got handed a classic Wall Street plot twist: it lost the FAA’s $875 million modernization deal, and the stock still climbed about 3%. Why? Because Rosenblatt basically said, “Nice try, bears — this story is bigger than one contract.”
Why the market shrugged
Analyst John McPeake kept his Buy rating and $225 price target, arguing the FAA’s rollout of SMART and its broader AI push could still flow toward Palantir through existing systems and licenses. In other words, Palantir may have missed the shiny headline contract, but it still has a foot in the agency’s door.
The key detail: the FAA reportedly said Palantir was the only vendor that could plug into its current setup without a giant rebuild. That’s the kind of moat investors love — the annoying, boring, enterprise-y kind that keeps revenue sticky.
The bear case isn’t gone
Of course, not everyone’s buying the love story. Michael Burry reportedly added to his bearish Palantir bet, which probably helped turn this into a mini battlefield of vibes, shorts, and stop-losses. Meanwhile, traders are pricing in more upside, with Polymarket putting a roughly 52% chance on PLTR touching $198 before month-end.
Big picture: Palantir didn’t win the FAA lottery, but it may have kept the government customer relationship that matters more over time. And in stock land, “didn’t lose badly” can sometimes look a lot like victory.