MU
Micron’s got a very good problem
JPMorgan’s Harlan Sur basically looked at Micron and said: the memory market is still tight, pricing is still climbing, and the company may have room to both beat expectations and lift guidance when it reports its fourth-quarter results on September 30th.
That’s the kind of setup investors like because it’s not just one shiny number doing all the work. Sur sees DRAM prices rising more than 20% sequentially, NAND prices up about 20%, and HBM shortages staying stubbornly real for years. In other words: the memory buffet may still be short on chairs.
Why the street is leaning in
Sur kept an Overweight rating and slapped a $1,540 price target on the stock, which is a pretty loud way of saying the current setup isn’t just good — it might still be getting better. He expects:
- August-quarter revenue, gross margin, and EPS to top Street estimates
- Data-center business revenue to stay above a massive run rate
- HBM4 ramping to help the product mix and margins
- November-quarter guidance to come in above consensus too
That’s a lot of green lights for a stock that lives and dies by pricing power. If Micron says the data-center and HBM demand story is still intact, traders will probably treat it like the sequel to an already successful movie.
The long game is the real headline
The juicier part of the note is the timeline. JPMorgan thinks HBM shortages could persist through 2028, which means the pricing backdrop may stay friendly longer than people expected. The bank also sees Micron eventually returning 100% of excess cash through buybacks after its CHIPS Act deal hits the two-year mark in December.
Big picture: Micron isn’t just heading into earnings. It’s walking in with a tailwind, a megaphone, and a Street that’s already bracing for upside.