SLB
XOM
New day, same oil drama
ExxonMobil had one of those days where the chart looks like a tug-of-war rope. TD Cowen bumped its price target on the oil giant from $168 to $180 and kept a Buy rating, betting third-quarter results will land better than Wall Street expected. Still, the stock traded lower as energy names got dragged by a weak market and a shaky backdrop in the Middle East.
The analyst note says: not bad, actually
TD Cowen’s Jason Gabelman thinks Exxon can beat consensus thanks to strong refining margins and better cash flow, even with a $2 billion timing headwind in the mix. He sees upstream earnings slipping sequentially, but says stronger Energy Products results could more than offset some of that pain. In other words: one part of the business is getting punched while another part is doing the punching.
Meanwhile, geopolitics keeps the oil tape spicy
The article also notes that President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian peace proposal tied to the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. That matters because any disruption around that chokepoint is basically the oil market equivalent of someone yanking the power cord in the middle of a save file.
Why investors should care
Exxon is still doing the classic mega-cap-energy thing: benefiting from strong downstream economics while living with upstream and geopolitical noise. Add in the SLB contract on ExxonMobil Moçambique’s Rovuma LNG project, and you’ve got a reminder that big oil is never just about oil prices — it’s about projects, margins, and whatever the Middle East decides to do next.
Big picture: Exxon’s long-term story is still tied to cash generation, but on a day like this, the market mostly cared about the macro weather report, not the upgrade.