UBER
Uber’s next act: fewer humans, more margins?
Uber’s getting a fresh bull case, and it’s basically this: if robotaxis get cheap enough, Uber might not get disrupted — it might become the toll booth. BNP Paribas Equity Research says autonomous rides could eventually cost about 42 cents per mile, well below Uber’s current human-driven model at roughly $1 per mile.
The math sounds great. The real world is messy.
Analyst Nick Jones put a $106 price target on Uber, implying about 56% upside from Monday’s close. But he also tossed in the usual “don’t get too excited yet” caveat: the economics still have a long checklist of things to prove, including fleet operations, licensing, financing, distribution, and the not-so-small issue of who actually eats the return on capital.
A few comparison points make the robotaxi race feel like a cost-compression Olympics:
- Waymo’s recent all-in build costs are estimated around $150,000 per vehicle
- Its next-gen Zeekr platform could cut that to about $70,000
- Tesla’s Cybercab target is roughly $30,000
- BNP Paribas thinks the industry could eventually get near that level at scale, though $60,000 to $80,000 seems more realistic near to mid-term
Why Uber investors should care
If autonomous rides become cheaper and more plentiful, the total ride-hailing market could expand instead of just reshuffling the deck. Uber’s big edge, according to Jones, is that it already has the app, the users, and the global network — which makes it a very convenient place for AV developers to send customers.
That’s the kind of setup that can turn a potential threat into a distribution advantage. And with more clarity expected over the next four to 10 quarters, this story could keep simmering in the background like a stock market slow burn.
Big picture: Uber doesn’t need to build the robotaxi itself to cash in. It just needs to be the place people tap when the robotaxi finally shows up.