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Apple’s premium gamble is looking less like a gamble
Apple’s latest iPhone playbook is basically: lead with the expensive stuff, let the base model show up later, and hope buyers go, “Eh, fine, I’ll take the Pro.” So far, that seems to be working. Counterpoint says the iPhone 18 Pro series grew 12% year over year in its first three days in China, enough to help Apple grab the No. 1 spot there in Week 38 with a 33% smartphone share.
China is soft, but Apple is still finding buyers
That’s the weird part: China smartphone sales have been sliding double digits since July, and higher memory costs are making the whole market a little grumpier. Yet Apple’s premium models are still moving, which suggests the company’s brand and product mix are acting like a force field against the broader slowdown. In analyst-speak, that can mean better revenue per phone — which is fancier shorthand for “more money in Apple’s pocket.”
The delivery-delay tea leaves
Deepwater’s Gene Munster says his tracking across eight countries shows Pro-model delivery times are 15% longer than a year ago. That’s not exactly a problem you rush to fix if you’re Apple; it’s the kind of bottleneck investors like, because it hints demand is outrunning supply. Munster thinks Wall Street is still too conservative on FY27 iPhone revenue and sees the upcoming foldable Duo — with preorders starting October 16 and deliveries on October 23 — as another possible kicker.
Big picture: the mix matters more than the meme
Apple doesn’t need every customer to buy the fanciest phone. It just needs enough of them to do it that the average selling price keeps climbing like it’s late for a flight. If the Pro models keep outselling expectations and the Duo lands with premium pricing intact, Apple’s next few quarters could look a lot less “meh” and a lot more “show me the margin.”