NKE
Wall Street’s patience is thinning
Nike is heading into its fiscal first-quarter earnings report on Oct. 1 with analysts sounding less like cheerleaders and more like people checking the battery life on a dying phone. RBC Capital cut its price target to $40 from $45 and kept a cautious stance, joining a parade of recent trims from Deutsche Bank, Piper Sandler, Evercore ISI, and Bank of America.
The problem isn’t just this quarter
The market seems less worried about whether Nike can squeak by on earnings and more focused on the bigger question: is the turnaround actually gaining traction, or just wearing good sneakers? RBC says the current quarter looks manageable, but the next few quarters may show more pain, especially with Greater China still under pressure and Nike Direct sales expected to lag.
- RBC expects revenue around $11.2 billion, a bit below consensus
- It sees Greater China sales falling 15% amid inventory and discounting issues
- Converse may keep dragging while Nike rightsizes the business
- New products like Pegasus Premium and Vomero 18 are getting some love, but not enough to call this a victory lap
The real investor tell
Nike has beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, which is nice, but also kind of the financial version of “the class is graded on a curve.” What matters now is whether management can show better sell-through, cleaner inventory, and less promo pressure — because if margins improve while sales keep wobbling, that’s not exactly a full-on comeback story.
Big picture: Nike doesn’t need a miracle, but it does need proof that the turnaround is more than a slow jog.