IREN
AI demand? Not the issue
IREN is basically saying the AI buffet is packed — its 2026 capacity is largely sold out, and it’s already talking about contracts priced above $20 million in revenue per megawatt of IT load. So the demand side of the story still looks hot.
The giant asterisk: the capex tab
The catch is the bill. IREN is planning roughly $25 billion to $30 billion of fiscal 2027 capital spending, and that number is big enough to make anyone do a double-take. The company says it has about $14 billion of cash, committed GPU financing, and customer prepayments, plus another $8 billion it hopes to pull in from GPU financing and prepayments.
That still leaves a chunky funding gap, and in a world where borrowing costs are higher, the math gets less cute fast. If you’re building an AI empire, the cheapest part of the story is no longer the GPUs — it’s convincing capital markets to keep handing you the keys.
Wall Street likes it… with one eyebrow raised
Most analysts still lean bullish, but not everyone is buying the fairy tale without a calculator. Rothschild Redburn started IREN at Neutral with a $40 target, while Jones Trading came in at Hold, pointing to customer credit quality. Meanwhile, the stock had already taken a hit as investors reassessed how much AI infrastructure really costs to scale.
The market’s new obsession
There’s also a broader mood shift happening: GPU rental prices are under pressure, and that makes future returns on new capacity look less like a sure thing and more like a “let’s see the spreadsheet” moment. Big picture: IREN still has strong demand, but now it has to prove that demand can pay for an absolutely massive buildout.