XSPC
Wall Street’s still in love
SpaceX is having one of those “the analysts are bullish and the stock is mooning” kind of days. Morgan Stanley reiterated an Overweight rating and slapped a $300 price target on the name, while TD Cowen recently kicked off coverage with a Buy and a $200 target. Translation: the Street is basically saying, ‘Yes, this is expensive — but maybe not as expensive as you think.’
The math says ‘cheap,’ if you bring a spreadsheet to the party
Morgan Stanley’s pitch is all about growth-adjusted valuation. Sure, SpaceX trades at around 30 times estimated 2028 EV/EBIT, which sounds like the kind of number that makes value investors clutch their pearls. But once you divide by the company’s growth expectations, the firm says the stock screens at roughly 0.3 times — below a peer median around 0.5 times.
That matters because bulls are arguing investors are pricing SpaceX like a finished rocket when the company is still, well, building the rocket. The bank even says the market may already be giving most of the space and connectivity businesses credit, with the remaining value tied to the AI side of the house.
Catalysts: Starship, earnings, and more Starship
The near-term watchlist is pretty classic SpaceX: more rocket tests, more upside narratives. Morgan Stanley says late October or early November could bring Starship Flight 15, which it sees as a big swing factor. The firm also flagged third-quarter earnings in late October as another moment that could force investors to reprice the story.
TD Cowen’s take is more about the longer game: AI leasing could become a major revenue engine, with capacity projected to climb from 2.1 gigawatts this year to 6 gigawatts by the end of 2027. That’s a lot of power, both literally and for the stock narrative.
Big picture
This isn’t a “new business wins contract” headline. It’s a reminder that SpaceX is now traded like a hybrid of rocket ship, AI utility, and connectivity platform — and Wall Street is still trying to decide which engine matters most.