Tanker rates are screaming, but stocks aren’t keeping up

A freight-rate fever dream

Crude shipping is having one of those “wait, is that number real?” moments. A very large crude carrier, or VLCC, is now earning about $1.3 million a day on Middle East-to-Asia routes — up from around $30,000 at the start of the year. That’s not a typo. It’s the kind of move that makes even the most caffeinated trader squint twice.

Why this suddenly matters

The article points to two big reasons the market has gone full chaos mode:

• War-related disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz are making owners demand more money to send ships into the Gulf.
• Voyages are getting longer, which keeps ships tied up and trims available supply.

That combo is rocket fuel for tanker rates. And when freight gets this expensive, the cost gets passed along in the delivered price of crude. Poten & Partners says freight has ballooned from 3% of delivered crude costs in January to 27% now. Ouch.

Stocks vs. spot rates: not the same beast

Here’s the catch: stock prices don’t move like a live ticker for spot freight rates. BWET tracks freight futures, so it’s been absolutely levitating. But tanker operators like Frontline, DHT, and the rest often have vessels booked weeks ahead — sometimes longer — which dulls the immediate impact.

That’s why you can see record spot profits and still get a stock market shrug. Investors are basically asking, “Sure, rates are wild today… but what about next quarter, and the quarter after that?” Big picture: if the shipping squeeze sticks around, the earnings tailwind could last. If not, this could end up looking like the fastest party in the harbor that nobody had time to fully attend.